Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a condition with a global prevalence of 24%. A wide spectrum of liver complications is attributed to this condition. This study was conducted to estimate the new cases of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and its potential risk factors in seven years follow up.

We included the data of 2461 people who were followed up for seven years to estimate the new cases of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. The participants in phase one of our cohort were selected using stratified randomization based on sex and age group with an interval of 10 years but from 10-90 years. The simple and multiple binary regression analyses were performed in which new cases of NAFLD was considered as the outcome variable and, potential risk factors including age, residency, marriage status, body mass index (BMI), homeostatic model assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), triglyceride (TG), high density lipoprotein (HDL), low density lipoprotein (LDL) and mean arterial blood pressure (MAP) were considered as potential predictors.

The frequency of new cases of NAFLD (based on percent) after seven years of follow up was 27.88% (25.41%-30.35%) in men and 30.17% (27.40%-32.94%) in women (p-value=0.226). In multiple binary logistic regression analysis, BMI [OR=1.219 (1.162-1.278) p-value <0.001], TG[OR=1.003 (1.001-1.005) p-value=0.005] and HDL[OR=0.986 (0.972-0.999) p-value=0.046] showed a significant association with new cases of NAFLD in men. On the other hand, marriage status 2.141 [OR= (1.286-3.565), p-value =0.003], BMI [OR=1.165 (1.121-1.211) p-value=<0.001] and HOMA-IR [OR=1.164 (1.041-1.301) p-value=0.007] had a significant relationship with new cases of NAFLD in women.

NAFLD is a disturbing condition in northern Iran. In this study, BMI, TG and HDL showed an independent significant association with new cases of NAFLD in men, while marriage status, BMI and HOMA showed an independent relationship in women.